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Observed and simulated daily variability of the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N in the Atlantic

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Haak,  H.
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Marotzke,  J.
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;
C 2 - Climate Change, Predictions, and Economy, Research Area C: Climate Change and Social Dynamics, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations;

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os-5-575-2009.pdf
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os-5-575-2009-korr.pdf
(Any fulltext), 220KB

os-6-1-2010.pdf
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Citation

Baehr, J., Cunningham, S., Haak, H., Heimbach, P., Kanzow, T., & Marotzke, J. (2009). Observed and simulated daily variability of the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N in the Atlantic. Ocean Science, 5, 575-589. doi:10.5194/os-5-575-2009.


Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0011-F88C-E
Abstract
Daily timeseries of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) estimated from the UK/US RAPID/MOCHA array at 26.5 degrees N in the Atlantic are used to evaluate the MOC as simulated in two global circulation models: (I) an 8-member ensemble of the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, and (II) the ECCO-GODAE state estimate. In ECHAM5/MPI-OM, we find that the observed and simulated MOC have a similar variability and time-mean within the 99% confidence interval. In ECCO-GODAE, we find that the observed and simulated MOC show a significant correlation within the 99% confidence interval. To investigate the contribution of the different transport components, the MOC is decomposed into Florida Current, Ekman and mid-ocean transports. In both models, the mid-ocean transport is closely approximated by the residual of the MOC minus Florida Current and Ekman transports. As the models conserve volume by definition, future comparisons of the RAPID/MOCHA mid-ocean transport should be done against the residual transport in the models. The similarity in the variance and the correlation between the RAPID/MOCHA, and respectively ECHAM5/MPI-O and ECCO-GODAE MOC estimates at 26.5 degrees N is encouraging in the context of estimating (natural) variability in climate simulations and its use in climate change signal-to-noise detection analyses. Enhanced confidence in simulated hydrographic and transport variability will require longer observational time series.