Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new 5-layer 
soil-hydrology scheme

Bunzel, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Fröhlich, Kristina; Hagemann, Stefan; Pohlmann, Holger; Stacke, Tobias; Baehr, Johanna

doi:10.1002/2017GL076204

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Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme

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Bunzel, Felix
Max Planck Research Group The Sea Ice in the Earth System, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37272

Müller, Wolfgang A.
Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37170

Hagemann, Stefan
Terrestrial Hydrology, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37295

Pohlmann, Holger
Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37233

Stacke, Tobias
Terrestrial Hydrology, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Bunzel, F., Müller, W. A., Dobrynin, M., Fröhlich, K., Hagemann, S., Pohlmann, H., et al. (2017). Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. Geophysical Research Letters, available online. doi:10.1002/2017GL076204.

Cite as: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002E-95B6-E

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal hindcast skill of 2-meter temperatures over Europe obtained with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Assimilation experiments from 1981 to 2010 and 10-member seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 May each year are performed with MPI-ESM in two soil configurations, one using a bucket scheme and one a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. We find the seasonal hindcast skill for European summer temperatures to improve with the 5-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme, and investigate possible causes for these improvements. First, improved indirect soil moisture assimilation allows for enhanced soil moisture-temperature feedbacks in the hindcasts. Additionally, this leads to improved prediction of anomalies in the 500 hPa geopotential height surface, reflecting more realistic atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe.