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http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/tp/TP_Forecasting_2007.pdf (Publisher version)
Pachur, T., & Biele, G. (2007). Forecasting from ignorance: The use and usefulness of recognition in lay predictions of sports events. Acta Psychologica, 125(1), 99-116. doi:10.1016/j.actpsy.2006.07.002.