Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning 
Circulation at 26.5 degrees N

Matei, Daniela; Baehr, Johanna; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Haak, Helmut; Mueller, Wolfgang A.; Marotzke, Jochem

doi:10.1126/science.1210299

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Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 degrees N

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Matei, Daniela
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37193

Jungclaus, Johann H.
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37167

Haak, Helmut
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

/persons/resource/persons37256

Marotzke, Jochem
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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引用

Matei, D., Baehr, J., Jungclaus, J. H., Haak, H., Mueller, W. A., & Marotzke, J. (2012). Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 degrees N. Science, 335(6064), 76-79. doi:10.1126/science.1210299.

引用: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0014-3A5B-1

要旨

Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5 degrees N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5 degrees N until at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability.