de.mpg.escidoc.pubman.appbase.FacesBean
English
 
Help Guide Privacy Policy Disclaimer Contact us
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Released

Journal Article

Forecasting Technology Discontinuities in the ICT Industry

MPS-Authors
http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons130174

Hoisl,  Karin
MPI for Innovation and Competition, Max Planck Society;

Locator
There are no locators available
Fulltext (public)
There are no public fulltexts available
Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Hoisl, K., Stelzer, T., & Biala, S. (2015). Forecasting Technology Discontinuities in the ICT Industry. Research Policy, 44(2), 522-532.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0025-77BB-2
Abstract
Building on the existing literature on evolutionary innovation and technological change, this paper aims to identify potential signals of technological discontinuities and to obtain assessments of experts to what extent these signals help them to predict discontinuities. Furthermore, we analyze whether internal experts (experts employed with firms) and external experts (e.g., consultants) differ in the importance they attribute to signals as predictors of technological discontinuities. The empirical analysis is based on a unique dataset obtained from a conjoint analysis conducted with 29 experts in the ICT industry. The conjoint approach allows for a simulation of the forecasting process and considers utility trade-offs. The results show that for both types of experts the perceived benefit of users most highly contributes to predicting technological discontinuities. Internal experts assign more importance to legal frameworks (e.g., standards) as signals helping them to predict technological discontinuities than external experts. The latter, in turn, assign more importance to profit margins and the recombination potential of technologies than their internal counterparts. Our results add important insights to the literature on R&D and innovation management.