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Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere

MPS-Authors
http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons37102

Bengtsson,  Lennart
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons37141

Esch,  Monika
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons37308

Roeckner,  Erich
MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Citation

Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Gaffen, D. J., Bengtsson, L., Doutriaux, C., Boyle, J. S., et al. (2000). Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. Science, 287(5456), 1227-1232. doi:10.1126/science.287.5456.1227.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0014-9F54-E
Abstract
Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.