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Abstract

The previous ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) studies conducted in Korea reported that the modeling error is a major source of the ESP forecast error in winter and spring (i.e. dry seasons), and thus suggested that improving the rainfall-runoff model would be critical to obtain more accurate probabilistic forecasts with ESP. This study used two types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), such as a Single Neural Network (SNN) and an Ensemble Neural Networks (ENN), to improve the simulation capability of the rainfall-runoff model of the ESP forecasting system for the monthly inflow to the Daecheong dam. Applied for the first time to Korean hydrology, ENN combines the outputs of member models so that it can control the generalization error better than SNN. Because the dry and the flood season in Korea shows considerably different streamflow characteristics, this study calibrated the rainfall-runoff model separately for each season. Therefore, four rainfall-runoff models were developed according to the ANN types and the seasons. This study compared the ANN models with a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called TANK and verified that the ANN models were superior to TANK. Among the ANN models, ENN was more accurate than SNN. The ANN model performance was improved when the model was calibrated separately for the dry and the flood season. The best ANN model developed in this article will be incorporated into the ESP system to increase the forecast capability of ESP for the monthly inflow to the Daecheong dam.