de.mpg.escidoc.pubman.appbase.FacesBean
English
 
Help Guide Disclaimer Contact us Login
  Advanced SearchBrowse

Item

ITEM ACTIONSEXPORT

Released

Journal Article

Investigating habitat-specific plant species pools under climate change

MPS-Authors
http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons62512

Pompe,  S.
Emeritus Group, Prof. E.-D. Schulze, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society;

Locator
There are no locators available
Fulltext (public)
There are no public fulltexts available
Supplementary Material (public)
There is no public supplementary material available
Citation

Pompe, S., Hanspach, J., Badeck, F. W., Klotz, S., Bruelheide, H., & Kuhn, I. (2010). Investigating habitat-specific plant species pools under climate change. Basic and Applied Ecology, 11(7), 603-611. doi:10.1016/j.baae.2010.08.007.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-000E-DA73-E
Abstract
We used 474 European plant species to analyse the impacts of climate and land-use change on the composition of habitat-specific species pools in Germany. We quantified changes in the probability of occurrence of species in a grid cell using an ensemble of three statistical modelling techniques, namely generalized linear models (GLMs), generalized additive models (GAMs) and random forests (RFs), under three scenarios (average change +2.2, +2.9, and +3.8 degrees C up to 2080). We evaluated the impact on single species occurrence and resulting species pools considering their affiliation to ten major terrestrial habitat types in both current (1961-90) and future projections (2051-80). Current habitat-specific species pools declined in size across all scenarios, e.g. by 24 +/- 13% (mean +/- s.d.) under the most severe scenario. We show that species responses may strongly vary among scenarios and different habitats with a minimum average projected range loss of 14% (+/- 18%; species typical to urban habitats under moderate climate change assumptions, average temperature increase +2.2 C) to a maximum average projected range loss of 56% (+/- 29%; species assemblages from mountain communities below the alpine zone at +3.8 degrees C). A separate analysis of species composition in habitat-specific species pools revealed a significant interaction between the scenario and the major habitat classes. We found a higher risk for habitat types with high conservation value characterised by a significant association between number of nationally endangered species and projected range loss in major habitats. Thus, habitat-specific management and application of measures favouring dispersal are required for mitigation of climate change impacts.