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Journal Article

Delayed winter warming: A robust decadal response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions ?

MPS-Authors
http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons37386

Zanchettin,  Davide
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons37356

Timmreck,  Claudia
Middle and Upper Atmosphere, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons49546

Bothe,  Oliver
Max Planck Fellows, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons37249

Lorenz,  Stephan J.
Numerical Model Development and Data Assimilation, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/persons/resource/persons37193

Jungclaus,  Johann H.
Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society;

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Fulltext (public)

grl50060.pdf
(Publisher version), 451KB

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Citation

Zanchettin, D., Timmreck, C., Bothe, O., Lorenz, S. J., Hegerl, G., Graf, H. F., et al. (2013). Delayed winter warming: A robust decadal response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions? Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 204-209. doi:10.1029/2012GL054403.


Cite as: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-000F-EDF1-4
Abstract
Climate simulations suggest that strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs) induce decadal dynamical responses in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, which protract the climate recovery beyond the short-lived radiative forcing. Here, for the first time, we diagnose the signature of such responses in European seasonal climate reconstructions over the past 500 years. The signature consists of a decadal-scale positive phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation accompanied by winter warming over Europe peaking approximately one decade after a major eruption. The reconstructed delayed winter warming is compatible with formerly suggested mechanisms behind simulated SVEdriven climate responses, thus corroborating the existence of SVE-driven decadal climate variability. Historical climatestate uncertainty may, however, hamper unambiguous statistical and dynamical assessments both for multiple and for individual SVEs. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.