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  Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability - prospects and limitations

Bathiany, S., van der Bolt, B., Williamson, M. S., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E. H., et al. (2016). Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability - prospects and limitations. The Cryosphere, 10, 1631-1645. doi:10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002B-125B-4 Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002B-125E-D
Genre: Journal Article

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tc-10-1631-2016.pdf (Publisher version), 3MB
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https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002B-125D-F
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 Creators:
Bathiany, Sebastian, Author           
van der Bolt, B., Author
Williamson, M. S., Author
Lenton, T. M., Author
Scheffer, M., Author
van Nes, E. H., Author
Notz, Dirk1, Author           
Affiliations:
1Max Planck Research Group The Sea Ice in the Earth System, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913554              

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 Abstract: We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2016-07-062016-07-282016-07-28
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016
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Title: The Cryosphere
Source Genre: Journal
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Pages: - Volume / Issue: 10 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1631 - 1645 Identifier: -