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  Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin

Barkhordarian, A., von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Loikith, P. C., & Mechoso, C. R. (2017). Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin. Climate Dynamics, 51(5-6), 1901-1914. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3988-z.

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Barkhordarian, Armineh, Autor
von Storch, Hans1, 2, Autor           
Zorita, Eduardo3, Autor           
Loikith, Paul C., Autor
Mechoso, Carlos R., Autor
Affiliations:
1I 3 - Global High-Resolution Climate Reconstruction, Integrated Activities, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, ou_1863494              
2C 3 - Climate Change Perception and Communication, Research Area C: Climate Change and Social Dynamics, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, ou_1863489              
3A 1 - Climate Variability and Predictability, Research Area A: Climate Dynamics and Variability, The CliSAP Cluster of Excellence, External Organizations, ou_1863478              

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Schlagwörter: CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS; CHANGE SCENARIOS; TEMPERATURE; DEFORESTATION; VARIABILITY; AEROSOLS; TRENDS; AMAZON; FOREST; MODEL
 Zusammenfassung: Abstract. We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983–2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud’s lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.

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Sprache(n): eng - English
 Datum: 2017-05-222017-10-222017-10-30
 Publikationsstatus: Online veröffentlicht
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3988-z
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Climate Dynamics
  Andere : Clim. Dyn.
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift
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Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Heidelberg : Springer-International
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 51 (5-6) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 1901 - 1914 Identifikator: ISSN: 0930-7575
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925568800