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  Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations

Li, W., Ciais, P., Peng, S., Yue, C., Wang, Y., Thurner, M., et al. (2017). Land-use and land-cover change carbon emissions between 1901 and 2012 constrained by biomass observations. Biogeosciences, 14, 5053-5067. doi:10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002E-2F06-1 Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-002E-2F0B-8
Genre: Journal Article

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bg-14-5053-2017.pdf (Publisher version), 2MB
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bg-14-5053-2017-supplement.pdf (Supplementary material), 945KB
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 Creators:
Li, Wei, Author
Ciais, Philippe, Author
Peng, Shushi, Author
Yue, Chao, Author
Wang, Yilong, Author
Thurner, Martin, Author
Saatchi, Sassan S., Author
Arneth, Almut, Author
Avitabile, Valerio, Author
Carvalhais, Nuno, Author
Harper, Anna B., Author
Kato, Etsushi, Author
Koven, Charles, Author
Liu, Yi Y., Author
Nabel, Julia E. M. S.1, Author              
Pan, Yude, Author
Pongratz, Julia1, Author              
Poulter, Benjamin, Author
Pugh, Thomas A. M., Author
Santoro, Maurizio, Author
Sitch, Stephen, AuthorStocker, Benjamin D., AuthorViovy, Nicolas, AuthorWiltshire, Andy, AuthorYousefpour, Rasoul1, AuthorZaehle, Sönke2, Author more..
Affiliations:
1Emmy Noether Junior Research Group Forest Management in the Earth System, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, escidoc:1832286              
2Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, DE, escidoc:1497750              

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 Abstract: The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite- and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (ELUCc) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and ELUCc. This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of ELUCc range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901–2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155 ± 50 PgC (1σ Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained ELUCc is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2016-0720172017-112017-11-14
 Publication Status: Published in print
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017
 Degree: -

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Title: Biogeosciences
  Other : Biogeosciences
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany : Copernicus GmbH on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 14 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 5053 - 5067 Identifier: ISSN: 1726-4170
CoNE: http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/111087929276006