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  Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., et al. (2014). Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 3262-3267. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222473110.

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 Creators:
Prudhomme, Christel, Author
Giuntoli, Ignazio, Author
Robinson, Emma L., Author
Clark, Douglas B., Author
Arnell, Nigel W., Author
Dankers, Rutger, Author
Fekete, Balázs M., Author
Franssen, Wietse, Author
Gerten, Dieter, Author
Gosling, Simon N., Author
Hagemann, Stefan1, Author           
Hannah, David M., Author
Kim, Hyungjun, Author
Masaki, Yoshimitsu, Author
Satoh, Yusuke, Author
Stacke, Tobias1, Author           
Wada, Yoshihide, Author
Wisser, Dominik, Author
Affiliations:
1Terrestrial Hydrology, The Land in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913560              

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 Abstract: Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2013-12-162014-03-04
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: 111 (9):3262-3267
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222473110
 Degree: -

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Title: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
  Other : Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
Source Genre: Journal
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Affiliations:
Publ. Info: National Academy of Sciences
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 111 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 3262 - 3267 Identifier: ISSN: 0027-8424
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925427230