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  Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions

Pohlmann, H., Mueller, W. A., Kulkarni, K., Kameswarrao, M., Matei, D., Vamborg, F., et al. (2013). Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5798-5802. doi:10.1002/2013GL058051.

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 Urheber:
Pohlmann, Holger1, Autor           
Mueller, Wolfgang A.1, Autor           
Kulkarni, K., Autor
Kameswarrao, M., Autor
Matei, Daniela2, Autor           
Vamborg, Freja1, Autor           
Kadow, C., Autor
Illing, S., Autor
Marotzke, Jochem2, Autor           
Affiliations:
1Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_1479671              
2Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              

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Schlagwörter: CMIP5; decadal prediction; quasi-biennial oscillation; tropical bias; model resolution
 Zusammenfassung: We introduce an improved initialization to the decadal predictions performed for the Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen (MiKlip) project based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model and furthermore test the effect of increased ocean and atmosphere model resolutions. The new initialization includes both a more sophisticated oceanic initialization and additionally an atmospheric initialization. We compare the performance of retrospective decadal forecasts over the past 50 years with that of the previous system. The new oceanic initialization considerably improves the performance in terms of surface air temperature over the tropical oceans on the 2–5 years time scale, which also helps to improve the predictive skill of global mean surface air temperature on this time scale. The higher model resolution improves the predictive skill of surface air temperature over the tropical Pacific even further. Through the newly introduced atmospheric initialization, the quasi-biennial oscillation exhibits predictive skill of up to 4 years when a sufficiently high vertical atmospheric resolution is used.

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Sprache(n): eng - English
 Datum: 20132013-11-132013-11-16
 Publikationsstatus: Erschienen
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 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058051
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Geophysical Research Letters
  Kurztitel : Geophys. Res. Lett.
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Washington, D.C. : American Geophysical Union
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 40 Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 5798 - 5802 Identifikator: ISSN: 0094-8276
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925465217