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  Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale

Knorr, W., Kaminski, T., Arneth, A., & Weber, U. (2014). Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale. Biogeosciences, 11(4), 1085-1102. doi:10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014.

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 Creators:
Knorr, Wolfgang, Author
Kaminski, Thomas, Author
Arneth, Almut, Author
Weber, Ulrich1, Author           
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1Research Group Biogeochemical Model-data Integration, Dr. M. Reichstein, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, ou_1497760              

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 Abstract: Human impact on wildfires, a major Earth system component, remains poorly understood. While local studies have found more fires close to settlements and roads, assimilated charcoal records and analyses of regional fire patterns from remote-sensing observations point to a decline in fire frequency with increasing human population. Here, we present a global analysis using three multi-year satellite-based burned-area products combined with a parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis with a non-linear model. We show that at the global scale, the impact of increasing population density is mainly to reduce fire frequency. Only for areas with up to 0.1 people per km2, we find that fire frequency increases by 10 to 20% relative to its value at no population. The results are robust against choice of burned-area data set, and indicate that at only very few places on Earth, fire frequency is limited by human ignitions. Applying the results to historical population estimates results in a moderate but accelerating decline of global burned area totalling between 6 and 20% (95% confidence interval) since 1800, with most of the decline since 1950.

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 Dates: 2014-01-222014-02-26
 Publication Status: Published online
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 Identifiers: Other: BGC1880
DOI: 10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014
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Title: Biogeosciences
  Other : Biogeosciences
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany : Copernicus GmbH on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 11 (4) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 1085 - 1102 Identifier: ISSN: 1726-4170
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/111087929276006