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Abstract:
We have predicted the potential distribution of 26 bioenergy crops in the UK, based on the
simple model described by Tuck et al. [1]. The model has been applied at a 5 km resolution
using the UKCIP02 model for scenarios at Low, Medium-Low, Medium-High and High emissions.
In the analysis of the results the limitations for crop growth are assigned to elevation,
temperature, high and low rainfall. Most of the crops currently grown are predicted to remain
prevalent in the UK. A number of crops are suitable for introduction to the UK under
a changing climate, whereas others retreat to northern parts of the UK. The greatest changes
are expected in England. The simplicity of the model means that it has a relatively high
uncertainty, with minor modifications to the model leading to quite different results.
Nevertheless, it is well suited for identifying areas andcrops that are most likely to be affected
by the greatest changes. It has been noted that Miscanthus and Short Rotation Coppice (SRC)
willow and poplar, which are currently regarded as highly suitable for UK conditions, may be
less suited to southern areas in the future, where, for example, kenaf could have a greater
potential. Further investigations are required to reduce uncertainty associated with the
projections based on this simple model and to make conclusions more firmly.
