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  Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Stocker, B. D., Roth, R., Joos, F., Spahni, R., Steinacher, M., Zaehle, S., et al. (2013). Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios. Nature Climate Change, 3(7), 666-672. doi:10.1038/nclimate1864.

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 Urheber:
Stocker, Benjamin D., Autor
Roth, Raphael, Autor
Joos, Fortunat, Autor
Spahni, Renato, Autor
Steinacher, Marco, Autor
Zaehle, Sönke1, 2, Autor           
Bouwman, Lex, Autor
Iain, Xu-Ri, Autor
Prentice, Colin, Autor
Affiliations:
1Terrestrial Biosphere Modelling & Data assimilation, Dr. S. Zähle, Department Biogeochemical Systems, Prof. M. Heimann, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, ou_1497787              
2Terrestrial Biosphere Modelling , Dr. Sönke Zähle, Department Biogeochemical Integration, Dr. M. Reichstein, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, ou_1938309              

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 Zusammenfassung: Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

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 Datum: 2013-03-012013-04-142013-07-30
 Publikationsstatus: Erschienen
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 Identifikatoren: Anderer: BGC1784
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1864
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Titel: Nature Climate Change
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift
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Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: London : Nature Publishing Group
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 3 (7) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 666 - 672 Identifikator: Anderer: 1758-678x
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/1758-678x