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  Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Kaplan, J. O., Bigelow, N. H., Prentice, I. C., Harrison, S. P., Bartlein, P. J., Christensen, T. R., et al. (2003). Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 108(D19), 8171. doi:10.1029/2002JD002559.

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Kaplan, J. O.1, Autor           
Bigelow, N. H., Autor
Prentice, I. C.2, Autor           
Harrison, S. P.3, Autor           
Bartlein, P. J., Autor
Christensen, T. R., Autor
Cramer, W., Autor
Matveyeva, N. V., Autor
Mcguire, A. D., Autor
Murray, D. F., Autor
Razzhivin, V. Y., Autor
Smith, B., Autor
Walker, D. A., Autor
Anderson, P. M., Autor
Andreev, A. A., Autor
Brubaker, L. B., Autor
Edwards, M. E., Autor
Lozhkin, A. V., Autor
Affiliations:
1Department Biogeochemical Systems, Prof. D. Schimel, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, ou_1497754              
2Department Biogeochemical Synthesis, Prof. C. Prentice, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, ou_1497753              
3Research Group Paleo-Climatology, Dr. S. P. Harrison, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, ou_1497765              

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Schlagwörter: tundra, biome, vegetation modeling, biogeography, ice age, mammoths Last glacial maximum; general-circulation model; 6000 years bp; plant functional types; net primary production; laurentide ice-sheet; sea-ice; northern eurasia; pollen data; intercomparison project
 Zusammenfassung: [1] Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55degreesN, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

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 Datum: 2003
 Publikationsstatus: Erschienen
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 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002559
Anderer: BGC0610
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Titel: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift
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Seiten: - Band / Heft: 108 (D19) Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 8171 Identifikator: -