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  The water balance of northern Africa during the mid-Holocene: an evaluation of the 6 ka BP PMIP simulations

Coe, M. T., & Harrison, S. P. (2002). The water balance of northern Africa during the mid-Holocene: an evaluation of the 6 ka BP PMIP simulations. Climate Dynamics, 19(2), 155-166.

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Item Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-000E-CECE-A Version Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-000E-CECF-8
Genre: Journal Article

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BGC0454.pdf (Publisher version), 216KB
 
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 Creators:
Coe, M. T., Author
Harrison, S. P.1, Author              
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1Research Group Paleo-Climatology, Dr. S. P. Harrison, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Max Planck Society, escidoc:1497765              

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Free keywords: General-circulation model; land-surface processes; lake status data; late quaternary; climate model; intercomparison project; spatial variability; boundary-conditions; monsoon changes; gcm simulation
 Abstract: Runoff fields over northern Africa (10-25degreesN, 20degreesW- 30degreesE) derived from 17 atmospheric general circulation models driven by identical 6 ka BP orbital forcing, sea surface temperatures, and CO2 concentration have been analyzed using a hydrological routing scheme (HYDRA) to simulate changes in lake area. The AGCM-simulated runoff produced six-fold differences in simulated lake area between models, although even the largest simulated changes considerably underestimate the observed changes in lake area during the mid-Holocene. The inter-model differences in simulated lake area are largely due to differences in simulated runoff (the squared correlation coefficient, R-2, is 0.84). Most of these differences can be attributed to differences in the simulated precipitation (R-2 = 0.83). The higher correlation between runoff and simulated lake area (R-2 = 0.92) implies that simulated differences in evaporation have a contributory effect. When runoff is calculated using an offline land-surface scheme (BIOME3), the correlation between runoff and simulated lake area is (R-2 = 0.94). Finally, the spatial distribution of simulated precipitation can exert an important control on the overall response.

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 Dates: 2002
 Publication Status: Published in print
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 Identifiers: Other: BGC0454
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Title: Climate Dynamics
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Heidelberg : Springer-International
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 19 (2) Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 155 - 166 Identifier: CoNE: http://pubman.mpdl.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925568800
ISSN: 0930-7575