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  Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

Smith, D., Scaife, A., Boer, G., Caian, M., Dobles-Reyes, J., Guemas, V., et al. (2013). Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41, 2875-2888. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0.

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10.1007%2Fs00382-012-1600-0.pdf (Verlagsversion), 4MB
 
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Smith, D.M., Autor
Scaife, A.A., Autor
Boer, G.J., Autor
Caian, M., Autor
Dobles-Reyes, J.F., Autor
Guemas, V., Autor
Hawkins, E., Autor
Hazeleger, W., Autor
Hermansson, L., Autor
Ho, C.K., Autor
Ishii, M., Autor
Kharin, V., Autor
Kimoto, M., Autor
Kirtman, B., Autor
Lean, J., Autor
Matei, Daniela1, Autor           
Merryfield, W.J., Autor
Mueller, W. A.2, Autor           
Pohlmann, H.2, Autor           
Rosati, A., Autor
Wouters, B., AutorWyser, K., Autor mehr..
Affiliations:
1Director’s Research Group OES, The Ocean in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913553              
2Decadal Climate Predictions - MiKlip, ou_1479671              

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 Zusammenfassung: We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.

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Sprache(n): eng - English
 Datum: 2012-072012-122013-12
 Publikationsstatus: Erschienen
 Seiten: -
 Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: -
 Inhaltsverzeichnis: -
 Art der Begutachtung: Expertenbegutachtung
 Identifikatoren: DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0
 Art des Abschluß: -

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Titel: Climate Dynamics
  Andere : Clim. Dyn.
Genre der Quelle: Zeitschrift
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Affiliations:
Ort, Verlag, Ausgabe: Heidelberg : Springer-International
Seiten: - Band / Heft: 41 Artikelnummer: - Start- / Endseite: 2875 - 2888 Identifikator: ISSN: 0930-7575
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925568800