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  Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario

Huebener, H., Sanderson, M., Höschel, I., Körper, J., Johns, T., Royer, J.-F., et al. (2013). Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario. Climatic Change, 120, 389-403. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0829-x.

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Item Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0013-FB1B-3 Version Permalink: https://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-001M-0000-0018-5056-9
Genre: Journal Article

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10.1007_s10584-013-0829-x.pdf (Publisher version), 812KB
 
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10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0877-2.pdf (Supplementary material), 196KB
 
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 Creators:
Huebener, H., Author
Sanderson, M.G., Author
Höschel, I., Author
Körper, J., Author
Johns, T.C., Author
Royer, J.-F., Author
Roeckner, Erich1, Author           
Manzini, Elisa2, Author           
Dufresne, J.-L., Author
Otterå, O.H., Author
Tjiputra, J., Author
Salas y Melia, D., Author
Giorgetta, Marco A.1, Author           
Denvil, S., Author
Fogli, P.G., Author
Affiliations:
1Climate Modelling, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913569              
2Middle and Upper Atmosphere, The Atmosphere in the Earth System, MPI for Meteorology, Max Planck Society, ou_913574              

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 Abstract: Climate change impacts on the regional hydrological cycle are compared for model projections following an ambitious emissions-reduction scenario (E1) and a medium-high emissions scenario with no mitigation policy (A1B). The E1 scenario is designed to limit global annual mean warming to 2 °C or less above pre-industrial levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of ten coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is analyzed, which includes five Earth System Models containing interactive carbon cycles. The aim of the study is to assess the changes that could be mitigated under the E1 scenario and to identify regions where even small climate change may lead to strong changes in precipitation, cloud cover and evapotranspiration. In these regions the hydrological cycle is considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the need for adaptation measures even if strong mitigation of climate change would be achieved. In the A1B projections, there are significant drying trends in sub-tropical regions, precipitation increases in high latitudes and some monsoon regions, as well as changes in cloudiness and evapotranspiration. These signals are reduced in E1 scenario projections. However, even under the E1 scenario, significant precipitation decrease in the subtropics and increase in high latitudes are projected. Particularly the Amazon region shows strong drying tendencies in some models, most probably related to vegetation interaction. Where climate change is relatively small, the E1 scenario tends to keep the average magnitude of potential changes at a level comparable to current intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability at that location. Such regions are mainly located in the mid-latitudes

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2013-072013-07-122013-08
 Publication Status: Issued
 Pages: -
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 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Type: Peer
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0829-x
 Degree: -

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Title: Climatic Change
Source Genre: Journal
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Publ. Info: Kluwer Academic Publishers
Pages: - Volume / Issue: 120 Sequence Number: - Start / End Page: 389 - 403 Identifier: ISSN: 0165-0009
CoNE: https://pure.mpg.de/cone/journals/resource/954925480588